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2009-2010 SPIHL Block 6 Recap & Mid-Season Review 1/2/10 The turn of the calendar year is a good time to step back and review the season to date.
Eastern Conference Dominance In the first set of inter-conference games, the Eastern Conference dominated with a 43-22-7 record vs. their Western counterparts. Blocks 5 & 6 saw each team play eight more inter-conference games and the East continued this trend with a 55-34-7 record. That makes it 98-56-14 for the season! Recent trades sending Brad Richard, Kim Johnsson, and Nikolai Khabibulin to Eastern Conference contenders (NY, NY, PIT respectively) will only add to this imbalance of power.
What does this mean? Given the lack of multiple dominant teams in the West, this is a great opportunity for Western Conference teams to slip into the playoffs and go on a run to the finals. Once you get there, anything can happen. In the Eastern Conference however, it means the road to the finals will be a particularly tough one this year.
Eastern Conference Playoff Race
The Atlantic Division is shaping up as a two horse race between NY and Philadelphia. The Gulls recent additions should bolster their squad enough to hang with a veteran Philly team that recently added Scott Niedermayer on the blueline. This race is too close to call and will likely come down to the wire. Pittsburgh has a fine, if somewhat underachieving, squad as well but likely has too much ground to make up to overcome both NY and Philadelphia in the standings.
The Northeast Division is also a two team race as surprising Boston leads the goal-stingy Montreal Bulldog squad by 5 points. Montreal’s brilliant pick-up of goalie Niklas Backstrom has really pushed them to the forefront. A key trade or two to pick up additional firepower by either team could swing it their way. Montreal has a huge advantage here as they are way below the salary cap (~$20M) whereas Boston is right up against it. Look for Montreal to pick-up a big scorer and push them over the top to catch the Bandits by season’s end.
The Southeast Division is the most powerful in hockey with three top contending clubs. Florida leads Washington by 3 points and Carolina by 4 points at the 36 game mark. Of course the Florida roster is a fluid, dynamic beast so it’s hard to say what it will look like by the trade deadline. However with a team salary just a shade below the cap and no more viable draft picks to unload, Trader Dan may have a hard time making significant moves to better his squad. Washington has been characteristically silent on the trade front, but look for wiley owner Bill Gamba to make one or two strategic acquisitions before the deadline to bolster his squad. Carolina is the surging team, going 7-1-0 since picking up Nick Lidstrom from Toronto in a real ‘go for broke’ move that appears to be working out well. This race is too close to call, but I like Washington to edge out Florida for first, with Ric Flair’s Sand Crabs staying in a close 3rd and well positioned for the playoffs.
In terms of the overall playoff picture, three teams have either demonstrated they are not playoff material and are now sellers (New Jersey and Atlanta) or decided this wasn’t their year and have already sold off valuable assets (Toronto). For now, Buffalo is in and Pittsburgh is out, but the Xpress have indicated they are sellers whereas Pittsburgh is clearly doing all it can to make the playoffs this year. My guess is that both teams will get their wish and Pittsburgh will beat out Buffalo for the 8th playoff spot and present a rather unpleasant matchup for the top seed.
Western Conference Playoff Race
The Central Division has evolved into a dual between the Nashville Stallions and the Chicago Blaze. St. Louis probably had a chance too, but Mike S. has decided to start shedding assets to build for the future. Chicago has been an active trader, alternating between buyer and seller but appearing to have settled in as a buyer making a playoff run. For Nashville games played limitations for Bonk, Holmstrom, Sharp, and Lilja will have a negative impact in the 2nd half of the season. I like Chicago to win this division in a very close race as Chris O. will certainly be aggressive in improving his squad and whereas Mark will need to make countermoves to keep up.
There is yet another two team race in the Northwest Division; this one between Colorado and Minnesota. The disappointing Vancouver Screaming Name is Too Fucking Long to Fit on the Standings Page Eagles have decided to start shedding assets to build for next year despite being only 7 points out of first and in fact holding the final playoff spot above the Slashers, who have started selling in earnest. In any event, Colorado is the one to watch here as they have not played up to their potential this season. With $4.2M in cap room and two first round picks (plus a 2nd and 3rd) available, look for the Chaos to bring in some additional help. They will likely need to do so as Minnesota has shown a willingness to improve their roster with the recent pick-up of Patrick O’Sullivan.
In the Pacific Division, as usual the LA 66er’s are leading the pack, but barely, over the surprising San Jose Thunder and even more surprising Phoenix Fire Ants. Some of LA’s key scorers have been underperforming, but goalie Jaro Halak has been out-of-his-mind good to compensate (1.57 GAA in 12 games). Solid goaltending and some stellar play from their stars have kept San Jose in the race with LA. San Jose probably needs to make some moves to overtake LA, but is handicapped by lack of cap room and serious games played constraints. However all their draft picks are available as nice chits to use in a deal. In Phoenix, they are doing it with smoke and mirrors as goals scored = goals allowed, but the team still has a decent 20-16-0 record, good enough for 6th in the conference. The team of the walking wounded (for 2009-10, next year Philadelphia will take the mantle) has tons of salary cap space and all their picks as well if they want to improve themselves.
Power Rankings – Top 5: Current (previous) t-1 (t-1) Boston Bandits (24-7-5) leading the stronger Eastern Conference they must be #1 t-1 (t-1) Florida Hotshots (24-8-4) leading the strongest Division in the East, they must be #1 too 3 (3) Washington Cyclones (23-10-3) Needs stronger play than recent in block 7 to avoid slipping 4 (n/a) Philadelphia Federals (22-9-5) 7-0-1 run in blocks 5 & 6 5 (n/a) Carolina Sand Crabs (22-10-4) 7-1-0 run in blocks 5 & 6
Bonus Stats – Hitting:
Bonus Stats: Ice time and Faceoffs
League Logistics: · We had a couple of late CM’s last block, but all games were played on time. I can only attribute the late CM’s to too much spiked egg nog. Remember, if your opponent doesn’t post a CM per the deadline, you are entitled to use the last block CM for that team. However it is considered in good taste to contact them about the missing CM before doing so. · CM’s for Block 7 should be posted by midnight Eastern Tuesday January 5th, game results due by the 15th.
· Remember that the league schedule for the season is posted at http://www.spihl.net/index.htm
· Per my email on the salary cap, before making any moves please be sure you are staying below the team salary cap of $64M for 2009-2010. Since the future year salary caps have no been set, there is no limit for future years. However when this is set in the off-season, any teams over the cap will need to make immediate moves to get below it. I am projecting a slight increase in the cap next year, but not much. But it’s TBD.
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